Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 20.815769 22.601594 24.528731 26.773087 29.327959 32.161166 35.562111
2025-10-12 17.922706 20.353848 23.158728 26.673864 31.018961 36.293230 43.306899
2025-10-19 16.077783 18.897707 22.325605 26.885648 32.931497 40.887959 52.548127
2025-10-26 14.537977 17.541685 21.343644 26.648349 34.102269 44.623042 61.474607
2025-11-02 13.351765 16.456674 20.519472 26.420765 35.142851 48.257274 71.114581
2025-11-09 12.462046 15.644144 19.930196 26.382887 36.371631 52.318592 82.549989
2025-11-16 11.687464 14.900274 19.335616 26.224041 37.335493 56.079650 94.610776
2025-11-23 11.028812 14.251842 18.798977 26.060833 38.225348 59.842479 107.984570
2025-11-30 10.451851 13.668102 18.294028 25.869951 39.009218 63.537913 122.672545
2025-12-07 9.989554 13.211775 17.932320 25.853713 40.071084 67.972032 141.144932
2025-12-14 9.547815 12.752607 17.524139 25.706612 40.856214 72.003002 160.685654
2025-12-21 9.373677 12.677310 17.698480 26.554054 43.636568 81.053213 200.964477
2025-12-28 8.952003 12.208682 17.227763 26.250980 44.161489 85.215921 229.176530
2026-01-04 8.621273 11.861668 16.929713 26.230007 45.274114 91.203191 270.325932
2026-01-11 8.367122 11.618409 16.782731 26.468915 46.982831 99.341303 331.076287
2026-01-18 8.050919 11.258428 16.414249 26.250330 47.644903 104.830638 387.382521
2026-01-25 7.760171 10.923418 16.065118 26.033228 48.276899 110.493495 455.464652
2026-02-01 7.521776 10.660360 15.821647 25.998496 49.337128 117.947474 553.577809
2026-02-08 7.281448 10.381849 15.532950 25.843969 50.081456 124.701047 667.259486
2026-02-15 7.056962 10.118641 15.254886 25.684584 50.791408 131.695721 811.577404
2026-02-22 6.843224 9.863491 14.976029 25.497848 51.404485 138.671750 993.061847
2026-03-01 6.667502 9.664167 14.786118 25.482019 52.479097 148.087736 1279.356762
2026-03-08 6.484587 9.444669 14.546807 25.338001 53.181291 156.380712 1634.789126